The atmosphere was somber when First Lady Jill Biden told attendees at the American Association of Community Colleges' National Legislative Summit in February that the federal free community college proposal had stalled.

"I'm disappointed, just like you are. Because like you, for me, for you, this isn't just about bills or budgets, right? We know what they mean to real people, to our students," she said. "It really shows us the human side of things—some people just can't understand that."

Although the federal initiative has fallen off the agenda, the energy of the free college movement did not dissipate that day. It has been shifting and evolving, finding new life at the state and local levels.

In recent months, a series of initiatives covering tuition and other educational expenses have been introduced or passed in certificate, two-year, and four-year programs. These measures range from broad state-level programs like the one approved in New Mexico,whichnearly allows any resident without a degree to attend public college for free, to smaller, more targeted plans.

Rosie Cloud, a senior official at College Promise, a nonprofit supporting such programs, said that six years ago there were about 53 state and local "promise programs" nationwide that paid tuition for eligible students. That number has now grown to about 350, with eight new programs launched in the past three months alone.

Molly Winograd, president of the Free Tuition Movement, believes the current situation is likely the result of two forces working together. One is the increase in public revenue from the American Rescue Plan federal relief package, which allocated $195 billion in fiscal recovery funds to state governments. The other is a tightening labor market, prompting legislators to seriously consider adult education, he said.

These factors "combined to create a moment where people can start working on things they hadn't considered before," he said.

Winograd noted that most programs are substantial investments, not repackaging of existing student aid. However, many programs have significant eligibility restrictions. New York's Excelsior Scholarship, dating back to 2017, is only available to students from families earning up to $125,000 per year, and recipients must reside in New York for the same number of years they received the scholarship.

Many programs have GPA and credit hour requirements. These requirements are often designed to save money, but they may also dampen the potential enrollment growth that institutions could gain from these initiatives.

"The hope is that enrollment growth will lead to revenue growth, especially at community colleges where enrollment has been declining."

Jim Hendrizer
Vice President of Consulting and Business Development at the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers

Jim Hendrizer, vice president of consulting and business development at the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers, said enrollment growth is the most likely way free college programs will affect institutional budgets.

"The hope is that enrollment growth will lead to revenue growth, especially at community colleges—where, depending on the state, enrollment has been declining over the past three to five years," he said.

That is the hope in Maine. Democratic Governor Janet Mills proposed a $20 million investment plan to pay community college tuition for pandemic-affected high school graduates. David Daigler, president of the Maine Community College System, expressed support for the proposal.

"Our enrollment of traditional high school and college students is at its lowest level in over a decade," he said. "The primary effect we seek is to educate these young students."

There's no such thing as a free lunch

Hendrizer said that expected enrollment growth doesn't always materialize. For example, the Rhode Island Promise program began in 2017, but enrollment at the community college system has been largely flat over the past few years, he said. Institutions participating in any program also bear the administrative burden of ensuring students meet requirements.

But free college programs can also have potential impacts on groups not included. Winograd noted there is a concern that free community college programs might incentivize students to choose two-year colleges over four-year universities.

There is indeedsome evidencesuggesting this is the case, but he said the resulting decline in enrollment at four-year public institutions is not yet large enough to threaten their finances. He cautioned that these findings predate the pandemic, which may have changed the behavior of many students.

"Private colleges and universities that lack a clear brand or distinctive programs have actually been hurt."

Molly Winograd
President of the Free Tuition Movement

The most significant impact on other institutions may occur outside the public system.

"Private colleges and universities that lack a clear brand or distinctive programs have actually been hurt. As states roll out free tuition policies, four-year private liberal arts colleges without revenue streams like research funding or large endowments have been hit," Winograd said. "But they were already struggling before this."

In some cases, colleges and universities choose not to participate in state programs. In contrast to the opposition of Republicans in Congress, state-level efforts have a considerable degree of bipartisanship. In North Carolina, some college leadersinitially refusedto participate in a Republican-led program that caps tuition at some colleges at $500 per semester, arguing it would bankrupt institutions. They worried the state would not compensate for the loss of tuition revenue. So far, however, the state has fulfilled its promise to subsidize the lower tuition costs.

Expected and unexpected consequences

Now, because these programs show little harmful impact on participating institutions, college leaders have recently shifted to support. Many are quickly preparing for operational impacts such as finance and enrollment.

Even in cases where new programs are unlikely to significantly affect enrollment—such as at four-year institutions with fixed capacity—it is still important to consider how they might affect acceptance rates in admissions. This is the situation at Rutgers University–New Brunswick, a public institution in New Jersey, said Courtney McAnuff, vice chancellor for enrollment management.

"The chancellor and provost see this as a priority to expand access."

Courtney McAnuff
Vice Chancellor for Enrollment Management at Rutgers University–New Brunswick

The flagship campus recently launched the "Scarlet Guarantee" program, offering free tuition to students from families earning under $65,000 and reduced tuition for those under $100,000. McAnuff said the campus expects some additional applications but will not admit many more students. Last year, the first-year class had 7,100 students.

The admissions office has already seen the program affect the number of students accepting offers.

"We are monitoring these numbers very closely and have built a large waitlist to understand exactly how many students accept our offers," McAnuff said.

The program could also change the composition of the student body, with more low-income families willing to send their children to the state's flagship university. The new program requires students to earn 30 credits per year, meaning they are likely to graduate in four years and not exhaust their aid eligibility in their final years. Administrators are adding student support resources such as tutoring and monitoring to ensure students stay on track academically. If students graduate faster, it will also increase the university's enrollment capacity, thereby increasing potential revenue.

McAnuff said about $10 million of the program's budget comes from new state appropriations, but nearly $20 million is a reallocation of Rutgers' own funds. The university's total annual budget is about $5 billion.

"It's a matter of priorities," he said. "And the chancellor and provost see this as a priority to expand access."

At New Mexico State University, officials expect modest enrollment growth from the state's new free college program. They have already seen an increase in applications in the teens percentage-wise, but the question remains how many students will enroll after being admitted. The university typically enrolls just over 2,000 first-time freshmen each fall.

New Mexico's program, called the Opportunity Scholarship, is one of the most expansive in the nation. Signed by Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham in March, it provides free tuition at two-year and four-year public colleges for any New Mexico resident. It is one of the few "first-dollar" state programs, meaning funds come before federal aid. Students can then use federal aid for other education-related expenses like books or housing.

Renee Scott, vice president for student success at New Mexico State University, predicted the program might raise the average age of the student body (currently about 23), as many people who graduated high school years ago consider returning to campus for a degree.

"The primary concern several of us have been asked about is ensuring this program is funded and adequately funded in the long term," she said. "I do believe there is a genuine effort to ensure that."

New Mexico State University currently has capacity for additional students, but there is also a question: if growth continues, will the school face resource constraints? More students could mean more faculty, teaching assistants, staff, and facilities.

"The primary concern several of us have been asked about is ensuring this program is funded."

Renee Scott
Vice President for Student Success at New Mexico State University

The University of Texas at San Antonio is another institution expecting and anticipating growth. Lynn Barnes, senior vice provost for strategic enrollment, said enrollment has been rising since the pandemic and the school is looking to build on those gains.

UTSA just expanded its existing free tuition program using additional funds from the University of Texas System. Revenue from the system-level endowment will bring about $3 million annually to the San Antonio campus, allowing the college to expand the number of students covered for full tuition under the "Bold Promise" program.

The program is available to Texas students from families earning under $70,000 who rank in the top 25% of their high school class. To date, more than 1,700 students have enrolled in the program, and 3,800 students are eligible for fall 2022 admission. The university did not specify how many additional students will be covered by the new funds, only saying it will be in the hundreds.

The endowment will provide funding permanently, which is an advantage over one-time state investments. For one-time funds, long-term sustainability is more ambiguous. But Winograd, president of the Free Tuition Movement, is hopeful that the momentum of the free college movement will continue.

"In the world we live in, only the brave or perhaps the foolish would predict what will happen in a few years," he said. "But generally, the history of free college programs is—once established, I can't think of any that have been discontinued."