Six years ago, alumni, students, and faculty of North Carolina's historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) strongly resisted a new state program that reduced in-state undergraduate tuition at several public institutions to $500 per semester. They feared it would trigger a financial crisis, despite the state legislature's promise to compensate for lost tuition revenue. Ultimately, two HBCUs were excluded when the NC Promise program launched in 2018.

Staff for state Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger still keep on hand the sharpest criticisms of the legislation from that time. Berger, a Republican, said recently, "This one might be the most intense." He then read aloud a comment from Rev. William Barber. Barber was then head of the North Carolina chapter of the NAACP and a vocal critic of the state legislature. Barber warned that NC Promise's steep cuts to tuition revenue would bankrupt HBCUs, calling the bill "a direct attack on people of color." (Barber and the NAACP chapter did not respond to requests for comment.)

But in the years since, the program has coincided with growth in undergraduate enrollment across North Carolina, and all three universities offering NC Promise tuition have benefited. It is credited with helping turn around the fortunes of Elizabeth City State University — the only HBCU in the program. Now, fellow HBCU Fayetteville State University has joined as well. Early concerns that NC Promise would worsen the financial struggles of vulnerable institutions seem to have been largely forgotten.

Berger said, "I can't help but think that a lot of the criticism we faced initially was rooted in the idea that if Republicans support it and it involves HBCUs, it must be bad." To be fair, the lawmakers who championed NC Promise in 2016 have, both then and now, differed with progressives on racially sensitive issues. Last year, a proposal Berger supported was rejected, which critics said aimed to ban the teaching of critical race theory in public schools — an academic concept exploring the idea that race is a social construct and that racism is embedded in policy systems.

"I can't help but think that a lot of the criticism we faced initially was rooted in the idea that if Republicans support it and it involves HBCUs, it must be bad."

Phil Berger, President Pro Tempore of the North Carolina Senate

Lawmakers control appointments to the University of North Carolina (UNC) system's Board of Governors, which has been embroiled in several fierce battles. Years ago, the chancellor of the flagship campus in Chapel Hill left amid a dispute over the handling of the "Silent Sam" Confederate monument. Last year, another conflict erupted over whether to grant tenure to Nikole Hannah-Jones, a Black journalist, at Chapel Hill. Hannah-Jones covers racial justice issues and created The 1619 Project, which examines how slavery has shaped modern America, drawing both criticism and praise from historians.

Today, college affordability seems to be a point of consensus. Republicans view it as an economic development policy, believing it raises the state's education levels and ultimately drives economic growth; Democrats value the potential of lowering financial barriers to college in narrowing racial and social equity gaps.

Darrell Allison, former chair of the UNC Board of Governors' racial equity working group and now chancellor of Fayetteville State University, emphasized that more than half of the university's students come from low-income families or are the first in their families to attend college, and half are over 24. Allison said, "If there's a school that can benefit from the NC Promise program and the diverse student body it serves, it's Fayetteville State University."

However, much remains unknown about the effectiveness of North Carolina's college affordability model. In the short term, it has become a tool to revitalize struggling institutions; but whether it can achieve the long-term goal of driving state economic growth through higher education remains to be seen. Supporters say it can serve as a model for other states, but some observers argue the program could go further in closing gaps in higher education achievement.

Driving record enrollment growth

In terms of lowering the biggest financial barrier to college, NC Promise's design has been quite effective. It reduces in-state tuition to $500 per semester and out-of-state tuition to $2,500, a discount of nearly 80% from the average published tuition for both categories at non-program institutions. New students entering the four program institutions — Fayetteville State, Elizabeth City State, UNC Pembroke, and Western Carolina University — do not need to undergo a financial needs review or meet any other eligibility threshold. Experts point out that this makes it easier for low-income students, especially first-generation college students, to benefit.

"The core value of a promise program is making college more affordable and accessible," said Victoria Jackson, assistant director of higher education policy at The Education Trust, a nonprofit working to close equity gaps affecting people of color and low-income students. "When you can reduce those financial barriers and make it clear to state residents that college is within reach, people start thinking differently about their futures."

Indeed, enrollment has grown at all three established NC Promise institutions, with Elizabeth City State University jumping 52% from its 2016 low of 1,350 — the program launched in 2018. A recent state audit found that NC Promise had a positive impact on enrollment at Elizabeth City State and determined it was "cost-neutral" for the university because lost tuition revenue was compensated by state appropriations.

"When you can eliminate the number one factor preventing students from entering or persisting in college, that's a true game-changer."

Darrell Allison, Chancellor of Fayetteville State University

At the three founding institutions, data show that new students and transfer students are driving or contributing to enrollment growth. For example, at Elizabeth City State and UNC Pembroke, undergraduate transfer enrollment increased by more than 50% in the first year of the NC Promise program. Meanwhile, the state legislature has kept its promise, allocating tens of millions of dollars in additional funds annually since 2018 to the three founding universities to cover lost tuition revenue — from $51 million in the program's first year to $66 million in fiscal year 2021-22. Starting in the upcoming fiscal year, the legislature will increase the annual NC Promise appropriation to $82.5 million to cover Fayetteville State University.

This does not include one-time expenditures related to infrastructure associated with enrollment increases. For example, Fayetteville State received a record $164 million total appropriation this year, including $63 million for a new education building, $40 million for a new dormitory, and $10 million for a new parking deck.

Allison did not explicitly say whether he expects Fayetteville State's enrollment to grow as dramatically as other NC Promise institutions. Records show the university's student body has been steadily rising for years, but recent growth has been driven mainly by graduate enrollment. Allison expects enrollment to continue growing over time and hopes Fayetteville State's affordability will ultimately improve the quality of the student experience. "When you can eliminate the number one factor preventing students from entering or persisting in college, that's a true game-changer," he said.

Can it last?

A big open question is: Can NC Promise prove its value? While evidence shows it has been effective in attracting more students to college, the tuition program has not been running long enough to show whether these students can persist to degree completion. After all, tuition is only part of the cost of college. Annual fees at UNC system institutions are about $2,000 to $3,000, in addition to food, transportation, and room and board.

Lawmakers have capped annual fee increases at 3%. But external costs such as food and housing often at least equal annual tuition, so discounted or even free tuition programs alone may not achieve the desired effect. The Education Trust's Jackson said that not covering such costs could mean students cannot access higher education. When students' living cost needs are not met, they are less likely to complete their degrees. "When you look at the full cost of attendance for on-campus experiences at many institutions, it's completely beyond the reach of financial aid available to low-income students," Jackson said.

"When you look at the full cost of attendance for on-campus experiences at many institutions, it's completely beyond the reach of financial aid available to low-income students."

Victoria Jackson, Assistant Director of Higher Education Policy at The Education Trust

NC Promise's design has pros and cons in this regard. It is a "first-dollar" program, meaning low-income students can still apply for federal or state financial aid and use those funds for other costs. In contrast, the Tennessee Promise program guarantees free tuition and mandatory fees at all community or technical colleges, but only after other financial aid is exhausted. Jackson noted that NC Promise's $500 per semester price — $4,000 total over four years — could still be a barrier for some.

North Carolina also offers free tuition at many community colleges, and Governor Roy Cooper recently used federal COVID-19 relief funds to extend that tuition standard to all two-year colleges statewide through the spring 2024 semester. But the state's promise program design for four-year colleges is unlikely to change to free tuition. "I do think there's an important incentive factor," said state Senate President Pro Tempore Berger. "People have to have some skin in the game."

Participating institutions are making their own efforts to reduce other barriers. For example, Fayetteville State is using federal COVID-19 relief funds to offer free summer courses — including books, room, and board — for students to take up to two courses. Its chancellor, Allison, said he also hopes to implement a program to help students manage personal finances and financial aid during college and prepare for the workforce.

"People have to have some skin in the game."

Phil Berger, President Pro Tempore of the North Carolina Senate

More broadly, NC Promise's long-term success will depend on whether it helps achieve the legislature's overall goal of cultivating a homegrown workforce and enhancing North Carolina's economic competitiveness. Four years is not enough time to achieve that, but a group of researchers at UNC Chapel Hill is developing methods to evaluate NC Promise's effectiveness. How long will this traditionally fiscally frugal state continue funding NC Promise before demanding results? "Of course, nothing is certain," Berger said, "but after talking to people from all walks of life in this state, there is broad consensus on one issue — and that is support for higher education."