Six Major Trends in Higher Education for 2026

The first year of President Donald Trump's return to the White House brought unprecedented and far-reaching changes to American higher education, and 2026 is expected to continue that trend.

The conservative-led spending and tax bill, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act,"is scheduled to take effect in July. However, the impact of the upcoming policy changes—including how some students fund their college education—remains up in the air.

The Trump administration also appears poised to continue using investigations into colleges as a means of exerting influence, leaving higher education leaders in a bind. Federal officials may also further restrict the rights of certain international students to study in the United States.

Meanwhile, analysts predict the coming year will be a financially difficult one.

To help higher education leaders prepare for the year ahead, we have outlined six trends expected to impact the sector in 2026.

Enforcement actions against universities may escalate

Under President Trump, the federal government launched a series of investigations into colleges last year, often pressuring them to implement sweeping policy changes by suspending or revoking their federal research funding. If the final days of 2025 offer any clue, the Trump administration does not intend to slow down this strategy.

On December 22, the U.S. Department of Educationopened a Clery Act investigation into Brown University, related to a shooting on the university's campus that month that left two people dead and nine injured. The Clery Act requires federally funded universities to issue timely emergency warnings to their campuses and provide support for victims of sexual assault, domestic violence, dating violence, and stalking.

"After two students were tragically killed by a gunman in a building on Brown University's campus, the Department of Education is launching a review of Brown University to determine whether it fulfilled its legal obligation to vigilantly maintain campus safety," U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said in a statement.

This new investigation caps a year of Trump administration probes into dozens of universities over alleged civil rights violations. Notably, Brown University was one of the few institutions that reached aformal agreementwith the government in 2025 to resolve those investigations. But its July agreement did not prevent the Education Department from investigating Brown over conduct that occurred after the agreement—nor does it rule out more such actions from the Trump administration in the future.

In itsongoing disputewith Harvard University, the Trump administration even threatened to take over patents on inventions developed with government research funding. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security also revoked Harvard's eligibility to enroll international students, but a federal judge blocked that move.

James Finkelstein, professor emeritus of public policy at George Mason University, expects federal enforcement actions to escalate in 2026.

"They will weaponize virtually every tool available, whether it's Title VI investigations, adding new conditions to federal grants and contracts, reviewing tax-exempt status, pressuring accrediting agencies, or targeting individual university presidents," Finkelstein said.

Will university boards stand up for their leaders?

In the second half of 2025, the Trump administration tried a new tactic in its reshaping of higher education—pressuring university presidents to resign. The U.S. Department of Justice successfully used this strategy in June, when then-University of Virginia President Jim Ryan abruptly resigned. He said he left to avoid jeopardizing the university's federal funding, as the school was facing a Trump administration investigation into its institutional diversity efforts during his tenure.

Ryan was not an isolated case. After a brief investigation, the U.S. Department of Education found George Mason University in violation of civil rights laws and singled out its president, Gregory Washington, for implementing diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives it described as illegal. Washington pushed back against the Trump administration, calling the allegations a "legal fiction" through his attorneys.

The George Mason University Board of Visitors, for its part, said it would focus on its "fiduciary responsibility" to serve the university's best interests. To date, the board—which has lacked a quorum of members—has not announced any major action.

Finkelstein said other universities will experience what happened at the University of Virginia "unless there is genuine resistance found on campus and in the community—whether it's faculty, students, alumni, or civic leaders."

"Boards themselves are not really going to support presidents," Finkelstein said, arguing that many boards are "being controlled by governors and legislatures" and thus "packed with political operatives." "These are not really trustees who are going to defend presidents against these attacks," Finkelstein said. "They are actually ensuring that these institutions capitulate."

As an example, Finkelstein pointed to Charles Stinson, chair of the George Mason University Board of Visitors. The attorney has held various positions at The Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank that led the development of the "Project 2025" blueprint for Trump's second term. He left the organization in December. Lindsey Burke, who led the Heritage Foundation's Center for Education Policy and wrote the education chapter of "Project 2025," stepped down from the George Mason board last year to take a position at the Education Department. Both Stinson and Burke were appointed to the George Mason board by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin.

"Boards today are set up for compliance," Finkelstein said. "They are not set up for independence."

In Virginia, the ideological tilt of university boards may soon shift, as Democrat Abigail Spanberger, the governor-elect, takes office on January 17.

"The question is whether, in Virginia, the pendulum will swing too far the other way, and whether Governor-elect Spanberger will try to go to the other extreme to balance the boards," Finkelstein said. "Given her track record, that doesn't seem to be her political character. But who knows?"

Another year of university cutbacks?

Last year meant more downsizing for many American universities. But beyond the now perennial concerns overenrollmentandinflation, many major universities significantly cut faculty and staff to financially adapt to the flood of policy changes brought by the Trump administration.

The federal government disrupted research funding, used investigations and threats against institutions, and erected barriers to international student enrollment.Student loan caps, a higher endowment tax, and other recent statutory changes could further strain university budgets this year.

In its 2026 higher education outlook,Moody's Ratings estimatesoverall revenue growth in higher education of 3.5%, down from 3.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, the credit rating agency forecasts cost growth of 4.4%.S&P Global RatingsandFitch Ratingssimilarly predict a bleak outlook for colleges and universities in the coming year, which could mean more budget cuts.

"We certainly expect more cost-control measures, and layoffs are certainly one of them," said Patrick Lenk, vice president and senior analyst at Moody's. "Inflation is moderating, which is good for the sector, but at the same time, we're seeing more constrained revenue growth."

While large institutions seeking to navigate the political landscape and macro trends may face more cuts, Lenk noted that many smaller colleges, after pandemic disruptions and historic inflation, have little room left in their budgets.

"For these institutions, there's not much left to cut," Lenk said. "Many smaller liberal arts colleges have been downsizing for years."

Not only that, but institutions also face spending pressures. Moody's and other higher education observers have pointed toa large backlog offacility and capital needsthat universities cannot put off addressing forever.

"At some point, you have to make the dorms look better," Lenk said. He added that Moody's analysts expect capital spending in higher education to pick up in 2026, with potential boosts from interest rate cuts as the Federal Reserve eases its anti-inflation efforts.

The OBBA Act takes effect

Themassive spending and tax billpassed by Republicans last summer, the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," contains some of the most sweeping changes to federal higher education policy in years. At the time, one policy leader in the field described it as "akin to a reauthorization of the Higher Education Act," the primary federal law governing higher education and student aid, which was last reauthorized in 2008.

Changes under OBBA includeending Grad PLUS loans—which became the largest new student aid program when Republicans created it two decades ago—and capping total student borrowing. Specifically, federal loans are capped at $100,000 for graduate students and $200,000 for professional students. The latter cap has sparked debate because the definition of "professional" remains unresolved, with some programs, including nursing, excluded.

OBBA also raises the tax rate on endowment income of the wealthiest universities, expands Pell Grants for accredited short-term programs, and establishes a new accountability system that would cut off federal student loans to university programs whose graduates do not meet income thresholds.

The new student borrowing restrictions could have broad implications for universities. Many worry that the end of Grad PLUS and the new borrowing caps will reduce program access and lower student demand. This, in turn, could strain university finances and prompt some institutions to cut graduate programs.

Lenk said the changes to the loan system could bring the heaviest financial impact on institutions under OBBA. But much remains unknown, including how private lenders will respond to the end of Grad PLUS and the implementation of the caps.

"It's a bit uncertain to what extent the private market will step in, or how much the private market will need to step in," Lenk said. Regarding the student loan caps, he said it's unclear to what extent graduate program costs will hit the borrowing limits.

Meanwhile, the endowment tax could constitute a significant government expense, bringing financial pain to a subset of institutions. For example, Yale University announced budget measures and possible layoffs in December, which school leaders partly attributed to anannual tax bill of about $300 million。

under the new law. However, as Lenk noted, the tax hits hardest those universities that typically have the highest credit ratings and the most resources and flexibility to weather financial shocks.

"These happen to be the wealthiest institutions, with very sophisticated investment offices and very large donor bases," Lenk said.

He predicted their overall wealth will remain "fairly strong," though he said the tax could reduce their operating activities due to lower endowment income.

Similarly, the new accountability system is not expected to have a huge impact on most universities. According to a recent analysis by the policy organization HEA Group of data released by the Education Department in late December, only2% of programsare at risk of failing the earnings test.

"The new accountability test will 'place more focus on specific programs and outcomes,'" Lenk said. "If there is more rigorous scrutiny of program outcomes after graduation, this will lead to generally better student outcomes and benefit the entire industry."

Shifts in international student policy

Following a series of Trump administration policies targeting foreign students and seeking to tighten the visa programs that allow them to study at U.S. institutions, the higher education community is preparing for a decline in international student enrollment in 2026.

An initial survey in the latest Open Doors report found that more than half of surveyed universities (57%)reported declines in international student enrollment for fall 2025。

A week later,NAFSA: Association of International Educatorsfound in a study that surveyed universities reported an averagedecrease of 6%in new international student enrollment (undergraduate programs) and 19% (master's programs).

NAFSA enters 2026 expecting a "sharp decline" in international student graduate degree enrollment due to "the current administration's policy decisions," said Fanta Aw, the organization's executive director and CEO.

These decisions have broughtsignificantly slower student visa processing times, pressure on research universities to limit the proportion of international students they enroll,the revocation of more than 8,000 student visas, and high-profile detentions and attempted deportations of international students who criticized U.S. foreign policy.

A Trump administrationproposal to limit student visas to four yearswould also hit graduate students particularly hard.

In Fitch Ratings' 2026 outlook for the higher education sector, which it characterized as "deteriorating,"deterioratinganalysts predicted that last year's federal policies will continue to weaken the pipeline of international students coming to the United States. For universities, the credit rating agency said, this could mean further erosion of tuition and fee revenue growth.

Less than a month after Fitch released its outlook, Trumpexpanded the travel ban to 39 countries。